Replacement of the Gamma by the Delta variant in Brazil: impact of lineage displacement on the ongoing pandemic (preprint)

The COVID-19 epidemic in Brazil was driven mainly by the spread of Gamma (P.1), a locally emerged Variant of Concern (VOC) that was first detected in early January 2021. This variant was estimated to be responsible for more than 96% of cases reported between January and June 2021, being associated with increased transmissibility and disease severity, a reduction in neutralization antibodies and effectiveness of treatments or vaccines, as well as diagnostic detection failure. Here we show that, following several importations predominantly from the USA, the Delta variant rapidly replaced Gamma after July 2021. However, in contrast to what was seen in other countries, the rapid spread of Delta did not lead to a large increase in the number of cases and deaths reported in Brazil. We suggest that this was likely due to the relatively successful early vaccination campaign coupled with natural immunity acquired following prior infection with Gamma. Our data reinforces reports of the increased transmissibility of the Delta variant and, considering the increasing concern due to the recently identified Omicron variant, argues for the necessity to strengthen genomic monitoring on a national level to quickly detect and curb the emergence and spread of other VOCs that might threaten global health.

SARS-CoV-2 genomic monitoring in the Sao Paulo State unveils new sublineages of the AY.43 strain (preprint)

Delta VOC is highly diverse and more than 120 sublineages have been identified in Pango lineages with the continuous description of emerging ones. Brazil is now one of the most vaccinated countries against SARS-CoV-2 in the world which can enhance the emergence of viral mutations related to improved viral fitness. In this study, we identified two novel sublineages of the AY.43 lineage which were classified as AY.43.1 and AY.43.2 as observed on the specific clustering on the obtained phylogenetic tree. The novel sublineages were defined by the following characteristic nonsynonymous mutations ORF1ab:A4133V and ORF3a:T14I for AY.43.1 and ORF1ab:G1155C for AY.43.2. The majority of the analyzed sequences of both lineages were Brazilian, which shows that probably these two emerging sublineages have Brazilian origin. It is still unknown how these two sublineages are disseminated in São Paulo State and Brazil and their potential impact on the ongoing vaccination process. However, the performed study reinforces the importance of the SARS-CoV-2 genome monitoring for timely identification of emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants which can impact the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 vaccination and public health policies

Genomic epidemiology reveals how restriction measures shaped the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Brazil (preprint)

Brazil has experienced some of the highest numbers of COVID-19 infections and deaths globally and made Latin America a pandemic epicenter from May 2021. Although SARS-CoV-2 established sustained transmission in Brazil early in the pandemic, important gaps remain in our understanding of local virus transmission dynamics. Here, we describe the genomic epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 using near-full genomes sampled from 27 Brazilian states and an adjacent country - Paraguay. We show that the early stage of the pandemic in Brazil was characterised by the co-circulation of multiple viral lineages, linked to multiple importations predominantly from Europe, and subsequently characterized by large local transmission clusters. As the epidemic progressed, the absence of effective restriction measures led to the local emergence and international spread of Variants of Concern (VOC) and under monitoring (VUM), including the Gamma (P.1) and Zeta (P.2) variants. In addition, we provide a preliminary genomic overview of the epidemic in Paraguay, showing evidence of importation from Brazil. These data reinforce the need for the implementation of widespread genomic surveillance in South America as a toolkit for pandemic monitoring and providing a means to follow the real-time spread of emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants with possible implications for public health and immunization strategies.

SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant of concern in Brazil - multiple introductions, communitary transmission, and early signs of local evolution (preprint)

The dissemination of the Delta VOC in Brazil is still unclear, despite the frequent reports of isolated cases from different Brazilian states. In this report we characterize the dissemination of the Delta VOC in Brazil and where the introductions of this lineage fall within the global Delta phylogeny. We also examined the mutational profile of the largest clade within the Brazilian Delta VOCs, with a focus on samples which were obtained in the State of Sao Paulo, and especially in the city of Sao Paulo, the largest metropolis of South America, and a national and international transportation hub.

Genomic monitoring unveil the early detection of the SARS-CoV-2 B.1.351 lineage (20H/501Y.V2) in Brazil (preprint)

Sao Paulo State, the most populous area in Brazil, currently experiences a second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic which overwhelmed the healthcare system. Recently, due to the paucity of SARS-CoV-2 complete genome sequences, we established a Network for Pandemic Alert of Emerging SARS-CoV-2 Variants to rapidly understand the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and monitor in nearly real-time the circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants into the state. Through full genome analysis of 217 SARS-CoV-2 complete genome sequences obtained from the largest regional health departments we were able to identify the co-circulation of multiple SARS-CoV-2 lineages such as i) B.1.1 (0.92%), ii) B.1.1.1 (0.46%), iii) B.1.1.28 (25.34%), iv) B.1.1.7 (5.99%), v) B.1.566 (1.84%), vi) P.1 (64.05%), and P.2 (0.92%). Further our analysis allowed the detection, for the first time in Brazil of the South African variant of concern (VOC), the B.1.351 (501Y.V2) (0.46%). The identified lineage was characterized by the presence of the following mutations: ORF1ab: T265I, R724K, S1612L, K1655N, K3353R, SGF 3675_F3677del, P4715L, E5585D; Spike: D80A, D215G, L242_L244del, A262D, K417N, E484K, N501Y, D614G, A701V, C1247F; ORF3a: Q57H, S171L, E: P71L; ORF7b: Y10F, N: T205I; ORF14: L52F. Origin of the most recent common ancestor of this genomic variant was inferred to be between middle October to late December 2020. Analysis of generated sequences demonstrated the predominance of the P.1 lineage and allowed the early detection of the South African strain for the first time in Brazil. Our findings highlight the importance to increase active monitoring to ensure the rapid detection of new SARS-CoV-2 variants with a potential impact in pandemic control and vaccination strategies.